States and local governments owed a combined N4.09tn to banks and the Central Bank of Nigeria as of December 2024.
Fresh data released in CBN’s latest quarterly statistical bulletin showed that the figure represented a slight reduction of N112bn or 2.7 per cent compared to the N4.20tn recorded in December 2023, suggesting a marginal improvement in the subnational debt profile.
A breakdown of the December 2024 data showed that commercial and merchant banks accounted for the largest portion of the debt at N2.41tn, representing 58.9 per cent of the total. This marked a decline from the N2.64tn owed to them at the end of 2023, indicating a reduction of N233bn within the year.
Meanwhile, exposure to the Central Bank rose from N1.56tn in 2023 to N1.68tn in 2024, accounting for 41.0 per cent of total subnational debt. This upward trend suggests increased reliance by states and local governments on direct funding from the apex bank.
The bulletin also captured for the first time an exposure of N3.77bn from non-interest banks to subnational entities, while primary mortgage and microfinance banks reported no outstanding claims.
An analysis of the 2024 data reveals a fluctuating trend in subnational borrowing, with January recording one of the highest values in the first half of the year.
The total claims by Nigerian financial institutions on state and local governments rose to N4.29tn in January 2024, indicating a 20.01 per cent increase from the N3.57tn recorded in January 2023.
The claims then dipped to N4.10tn in February and N4.09tn in March before falling significantly to N3.52tn in April, marking a 14.07 per cent month-on-month decline and the only year-on-year contraction of the year at 5.68 per cent.
Throughout the year, the bulk of the credit to state and local governments was provided by the Central Bank and commercial and merchant banks. In January, the CBN held N1.56tn of the claims, accounting for 36.38 per cent, while commercial and merchant banks accounted for N2.73tn or 63.62 per cent.
This pattern of distribution persisted over the months, although April witnessed a notable shift. In that month, the CBN’s share rose to 45.17 per cent of total claims, while commercial bank exposure dropped to 54.71 per cent, coinciding with a period of reduced aggregate claims and possibly reflecting reduced lending appetite from commercial institutions.
Following the April decline, total claims rebounded strongly in May, rising by 14.74 per cent to N4.04tn, and peaked again in June at N4.29tn. Claims remained relatively stable through the rest of the year, staying above N4tn from July to December.
On a year-on-year basis, significant increases were recorded across most months. February saw a 12.96 per cent increase compared to February 2023, while March rose by 11 per cent year-on-year. The most notable year-on-year increase occurred in June, with claims up by N1.01tn, or 30.65 per cent, compared to June 2023.
By December 2024, total claims stood at N4.09tn, compared to N4.20tn in December 2023, representing a slight year-on-year decline. The data also shows that non-interest banks contributed marginally to subnational claims, with a steady amount of N4.03m until August, after which it dropped slightly to N3.77m in December.
The gradual rise in the CBN’s share suggests growing reliance on the apex bank by state governments, especially in months when commercial banks appeared to tighten credit.
Conversely, the retreat of commercial banks, which started the year with N2.73tn in claims and ended with N2.41tn, may reflect increased risk sensitivity or tighter regulatory conditions in the banking sector. The slight easing of debt levels came in the context of a year marked by soaring inflation and aggressive monetary tightening by the Central Bank.
Experts react
The Director and Chief Economist at Proshare Nigeria LLC, Teslim Shitta-Bey, warned that the rising debt burden on Nigeria’s subnational governments could challenge their fiscal stability in the coming years.
He stressed that most state governments, along with the Federal Government, had failed to effectively manage their balance sheets.
Speaking to Sunday PUNCH, Shitta-Bey said, “The challenge here is that most of the governments, including the Federal Government, are unable to manage their balance sheets properly. While borrowing might seem like an easy way to run operations, it is not necessarily the right approach.”
According to Shitta-Bey, borrowing should not be the default solution for governments.
“Governments could consider longer-term debt structures that resemble equity, which might actually be more beneficial in the long run,” he explained.
He also called for a comprehensive register of national assets to help states raise capital.
He used the example of the National Stadium, which had not been used for major activities for a while.
Shitta-Bey lamented the underuse of state revenue bonds, which were originally designed to generate revenue. “States need to focus on raising revenue bonds, instead of general obligation bonds,” he said.
On his part, a Lagos-based economist, Adewale Abimbola, attributed the persistent fiscal fragility of Nigerian states to their economic non-viability and overreliance on federal allocations.
According to Abimbola, most states are not economically viable and depend heavily on disbursements from the Federation Account Allocation Committee for survival.
He noted that state governments, particularly the less vibrant ones, must begin to examine themselves inwardly to identify sectors in which they possess competitive advantages.
“Once that is mapped out,” he said, “they need to communicate and amplify these opportunities to both the local private sector and foreign investors.”
Abimbola also stressed the importance of improving the ease of doing business, saying that states should adopt supportive policies and avoid stifling regulations, which often deter investment.
“The thing is, state governors know what to do. They know what to do,” he remarked pointedly. “But what’s lacking is the political will to pursue them.”
He expressed concern that this governance gap had worsened in 2025, as many political actors are now more focused on the 2027 elections than on addressing governance and development priorities.
A macroeconomic analyst, Dayo Adenubi, also emphasised the need for states to take more targeted steps toward boosting internally generated revenue as they grapple with rising debt obligations and constrained federal transfers.
According to Adenubi, one key strategy is to raise consumption levels in order to increase Value Added Tax collections.
He also stressed the importance of improving tax collection within state corridors, especially by enforcing taxes such as property taxes and transport-related levies, while ensuring that governments deliver on the social contract to maintain citizen trust and compliance.
Also, Adenubi highlighted the role of economic policy at the subnational level, stating that enhancing the ease of doing business within states could encourage corporate growth and job creation.
This, in turn, would lead to higher Pay-As-You-Earn tax remittances, helping to stabilise state revenues and reduce dependence on borrowing, he said.
