As political realignments gather pace ahead of the next general elections, Director of Research at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Prof. Femi Otubanjo, speaks on the emergence of presidential candidates for the parties, and assesses the growing permutations, alliances and power struggles already shaping the battle for 2027. Otubanjo also says recent developments in Rivers State may have dealt a serious political blow to President Bola Tinubu’s ambition in the South-South.
In this interview, the scholar, who appeared on an Arise News programme, argues that the sidelining of Governor Siminalayi Fubara could alienate Ijaw voters across the region and ultimately weaken the APC’s electoral calculations. Excerpts:
How do you interpret the way Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s political crisis has unfolded, and what does it reveal about the state of internal democracy in parties like the APC, ADC and NDC ahead of the 2027 elections?
Well, I think the treatment of Fubara must be one of the American wonders of Nigerian politics. Fubara has been badly treated. We have a situation in which Wike, who is not even in the APC, has taken control of the primary situation in the APC. The reality, of course, is that what they have done is very dangerous for Tinubu. I hope the tactical Tinubu is not sleeping. What has emerged today in Rivers is that Wike is pursuing his own agenda, not Tinubu’s agenda, in spite of the pretense of a PBAT and all that combination. If Wike really wants to pursue Tinubu’s agenda, he must retain Fubara or struggle to get another Ijaw man as the candidate. To remove Fubara, an Ijaw man, for the first time, being governor of Rivers State, and put an upland person, not just any upland person, but somebody from his own local government, is creating problems for Tinubu.
Alienating the Ijaw
The Ijaw are in the majority in that state. By removing Fubara from the scenario, you are alienating the Ijaw. You are undermining your ability to win in Rivers State. You are not only alienating the Ijaw in Rivers State, you are alienating the eight to 14 million Ijaw across the South-South. It’s a dangerous game to play. The beneficiary of that game will be Wike. And let me say that, as Donu Kogbara said, Wike does not own Rivers State. Wike owns the machinery of selection, but he does not own the people. If the people of Rivers State are normal people, like everybody else, like me and you, they will be disgusted with the way their governor has been treated. And they are not likely to vote for Tinubu.
Shooting on the legs
So by removing Fubara, you are shooting yourself on the leg. But it is not Wike’s leg that has been shot, it is Tinubu’s legs. Tinubu had, going for him, the whole of the South-South. All of them have gone APC. Peter Obi did very well in South-South in 2023, but he’s unlikely to do so with those governors sitting down there. Now you are trying to undermine that advantage which you have labored to gain.
And I’m sure that it’s not Fubara that will suffer. Fubara will go to NDC and he will try, he might even win. But the danger for Fubara is that when he goes to NDC and he still has his (Wike) legislators, 28 of them, around him, he might even be impeached before the election. And that will make him less powerful and less of a formidable candidate. But overall, I know that Fubara’s case has been a very bad one. But he, of course, is the one who got himself into it. You cannot, like they say, willingly go into a river and complain of getting wet. You were part of that arrangement of allowing to be selected by one man. And now you have been de-selected by the same man.
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But looking beyond Rivers State, let us turn to the bigger 2027 picture and Atiku Abubakar’s emergence in the ADC. There are those who believe the current alignment is beginning to resemble the 2023 race, while others argue that the South appears more fragmented this time, with multiple contenders potentially splitting the vote and creating an opening for Atiku. From your reading of the political landscape, how do you see the permutations shaping up ahead of 2027?
Atiku’s emergence was almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. There was nothing to it. That’s why Peter Obi ran away to NDC because there was no way anybody could have defeated Atiku. ADC is a special purpose vehicle for Atiku’s candidacy. It must interest you to know that Atiku had wanted to start a party before 2019. He did not think that he was going to get the nomination of the PDP because of this rotation business, which later created a problem between him and Wike. I know that because he told me directly one-to-one. I was re-recruited as somebody with some special strategic ability, which is the lie. But he never took one because I think he was able to now persuade the chairman of the party to be on his side, and he won the nomination of the PDP. So he created the ADC for himself, basically. And, therefore, it was not surprising that he won. What surprises me is that Amaechi is struggling to vie with Atiku.
Premier League of politics
If you will allow me, I can liken Nigerian politics to the English football system, where you have the Premier League, Championship League, League One, League Two, and five different leagues. And there are only two people in the Premier League of politics in Nigeria. That is Tinubu and Atiku. If I were to put somebody in the championship, I would put Kwankwaso and Obi. Kwankwaso, because he has created a movement, because he has created a party. Obi, not because he had created a party, but because at least he has had a national exposure, and so on. And then the others. Amaechi is going to be in League One. I’m surprised that he’s struggling to be president. The problem of Nigeria is that politics is about incantation. When you say something repeatedly, you believe that you can do it. People who cannot win ward elections are vying for local government chairmen. Those who cannot win local government chairmen are vying for House of Representatives. Those who cannot win House of Representatives are vying for Senate, and so on. Those who cannot win Senate are vying for the presidency. So, he should not have bothered himself.
Heavyweights
Right now, Atiku has no leg in the South. There’s no prominent member of the ADC from the South except Amaechi. From the initial complaint about being cheated, he was never going to be cheated. Atiku scored 1,846,000 plus. Amaechi scored 500,000, about four times. So, he was not there. It was like a heavyweight fighting a welterweight. Of course, we know that the outcome was already forgone. So, if Atiku is able to persuade Amaechi, not that Amaechi will be a great asset, because he does not have the structure, he has never started a political party. He was a technocratic governor. He was somebody who was chosen by grace of Odili as Speaker. Then, fortunately, he became a governor. And then, became minister. These are all technocratic things. And he’s never been a politician with a structure. So, I don’t see him being a formidable asset for Atiku, but he’s likely to be the best person Atiku should choose.
Drawing from your decades of studying political strategy and electoral behaviour, what is your reading of the 2027 race at this stage? Political analysts often say that, months before an election, certain patterns already begin to reveal the likely direction of the contest. From what you are seeing now, do the dynamics favour President Tinubu, or do you believe there could still be an unexpected factor capable of reshaping the race? You also spoke about a “Premier League” or “Champions League” of Nigerian politics. In practical terms, what truly determines who belongs in that top political class in Nigeria?
You know that what makes somebody heavyweight is the weight. Tinubu and Atiku, again, at least in the last 26 years, they have created political parties, they have been part of political coalitions. And now they have contested elections, presidential elections. This will be Atiku’s seventh contest. So by any standard, he is a giant in Nigerian politics. Just like Tinubu has helped to create APC, he was the catalyst of the APC. He was the mastermind, the financier as well. He created APC that has taken over power. And today, Tinubu has under his belt 31 APC governors. The governor of Anambra, who is a Tinubu man, Soludo, has always spoken favorably about Tinubu. And I’m sure that has helped him to retain his second term. And you have Adeleke, who is saying that Tinubu’s ancestral home is his state (Osun) and “I have an obligation, a commitment to support him”.
Odds favour Tinubu
So, Tinubu has an advantage over other candidates right now. Incumbency is not necessarily an advantage; after all, Jonathan was defeated as an incumbent. But Tinubu has what you call creative, positive incumbency. He has used it well. When Tinubu was contesting last time, he had very few governors on his side. He had the presidency virtually against him. The governors of the North were half-hearted. He was second in Kaduna. He was second in Katsina and in Kano. But now, all the governors are APC, and they are going to matter. All those people who are talking about the North, these are people who have never won anything, and they claim to be talking about the North. There is not one North. Tinubu will win hands down in North-Central. There is North-East, where Tinubu will be competitive, because (VP) Shettima is there. Taraba State, where Peter Obi did well (in 2023), has gone to APC. So, let me say this. The odds favour Tinubu. But as Harold Wilson tells us, a week is a long time in politics. Anything can change.
Credit: Vanguard
