By Risikatu Abiola, FCT.
There is a fundamental question that Nigerian political observers must now confront as the 2027 election whistle is blown: Can Atiku Abubakar run a presidential campaign without parasitically depending on the electoral machinery of state governors to deliver votes — the very strategy Peter Obi deployed so effectively in the past?
The arithmetic is unforgiving. Unlike 2023, there is no influential governor positioned to deliver bloc votes for Atiku in their respective states. Should Peter Obi abandon the ADC and align with Atiku’s ambition, he would not be rescuing a coalition — he would be burying his own political relevance in a candidate whose fortunes are already in terminal decline.
The former Vice President made a grave miscalculation when he thrust himself into the 2027 presidential race — a contest that broad national consensus holds should belong to the South. In 2023, Atiku conveniently blamed Nyesom Wike for manipulating the zoning committee to throw the ticket open. That alibi is now expired. Wike is no longer in the ADC. What is his excuse this time?
The answer, stripped of all diplomatic pretense, is that Atiku has demonstrated a contemptuous disregard for the Southern zone — the very geopolitical bloc that has been the bedrock of his presidential ambitions across multiple election cycles, delivering millions of votes each time he came calling. One would expect, at minimum, a measure of reciprocal respect. Instead, he has shown a stubborn refusal to honour the zoning convention, insisting on contesting when the North’s turn — by any honest reading of federal character principles — has not yet come again.
For a man who has long marketed himself as a national unifier, the irony is devastating. Perhaps the more accurate title is not unifier, but uni-fire — a man who ignites his own coalitions only to watch them burn.
Risikatu Abiola, FCT.
